POPULAR VOTE THING

There has been a lot of talk about what will happen if Obama wins the most pledged delegates but Hillary wins the popular vote.

Similar to the situation in TEXAS (where I had read the rules and figured out that OBAMA could lose the popular vote by as much as four and still win the delegate count for that state). No one has bothered (that I know of) or has offered any mathematical constructs showing the margins she will need to surpass Obama in the popular vote.

Let's crunch some numbers.There are 11 remaining races: MS, PA, OR, MT, SD, IN, KY, WV, NC, GuaM, and PR. All are primaries.

The Green Papers (primary voting website linked to secretary of state official tallies) has the popular votes from the 2004 primary season for all of the above except Puerto Rico, who had a caucus that year and ended up cancelling even that. This year PR is having a primary, but since there is no data from previous years I have left them out of my equations.

The total popular vote from 2004 in the abovementioned states (excluding PR, as noted) is 2,231,107.

How, then, can we guesstimate how many will actually vote in 2008? We can assume that the turnout will be much larger than in 2004, but by how much? The local level of interest in these races can be assumed to be as great as the level of interest in the other post-Super Tuesday races, when it became clear that nothing was decided, as opposed to past primary seasons when there was usually a presumptive nominee early on. So.What was the 2004 popular vote in the most recent races vs. 2008? I took OH, TX, RI, VT, WI, VA, MD, and DC as a point of comparison.

In 2004, total popular vote for these was 4,044,062 (per The Green Papers). In 2008, the total popular vote was 8,396,818 (per Real Clear Politics). Thus we had a little over twice the number of voters. So in the remaining races (excluding PR), we can guesstimate anywhere from twice 2,231,107 -- 4,462,214 -- to a generous thrice 2,231,107 -- 6,693,321.

If twice the regular numbers turn out, Clinton must win by 57-43% (average of each state)

to bypass Obama.

If thrice the regular numbers turn out, Clinton must win by 55-45% to bypass Obama.

But what if there's a redo of Florida and Michigan? This is Clinton's best chance of a catch up in popular vote:Using the methodology as above but adding FL and MI to the mix:If twice the regular numbers turn out, Clinton must win by a little less than 55-45% to bypass Obama.

If thrice the regular numbers turn out, Clinton must win by a little more than 53-47% to bypass Obama.Even if four times the regular numbers turn out, Clinton still must win by almost 52.5-47.5% to bypass Obama.

Does anyone think Clinton will maintain this percentage against Obama thruout the remaining races to win the popular vote?

This doesnt even take into account that OBAMA is likely to win at least 4 of the states with no problem (MS, OR, MT and SD) and is likely to win in North Carolina (the others are toss-ups at the moment). This would only make her further behind.

DAY 4 AT DISNEYLAND

Got up a little later than usual, and went to the breakfast in the park with minnie mouse, a lot of fun. Although Mommy Bear thought it smelled a little like pee. After that we headed to the California Adventure and had a great time with a couple of 3-D shows, and lunch on the Pacific Wharf where afterwards we threw some bread to the ducks and seagulls and a lost sandpiper. Mommy And cilly went on the big new roller coaster CALIFORNIA SCREAMIN'. And cilly went back on the Ferris Sun Wheel but this time on the Non-swinging gondola which she liked a lot better. We had planned to end our trip going down the water ride Grizzly River Rapids and at the last minute Mommy decided to get on. Julie got soaked, and me a little less so, cilly a bit and mommy not hardly. We went to the WOrld of Disney Store and loaded up on some good stuff and ended with a good meal and a little packing. Again the girls snoozed right away. Tommorrow we head back. It was a great trip. Pictures are with pooh, capt hook,at the Splatterhorn, on the wharf, and after getting splashed.

DAY 3 AT DISNEYLAND

Day 3 started with an exciting visit to Goofys Kitchen, the characters were out in full force, and we had quite a high time, goofy led a macarena line around. We finished up with the few things that we hadnt done yet at disneyland. And had lunch at the famed Blue Bayou. The girls got to sit on the back deck of the RiverBoat and in the very front hatch (with the driver) of the monorail. The one action item was going on the NEMO submarine ride which everyone seems to be ga-ga for. We were in line when the park opened and in position and for some reason the staff was yelling at the crowd to go around the Matterhorn (and the crowd believed it!) while we and about a dozen people who had been there before (i guess?) made our way to the ride, and we literally walked right on the sub, the girls loved it. By the time we got off the ride was to the 45 minute mark--- ouch. Even with two small kids we still beat the mass of people there, including teenagers that were running. We theorized later that if they went around the matterhorn, the line of people came straight into the ride where as groups could converge from one of three ways he way we went, so maybe it was an mayhem control issue. Anyway we pronounced the groups losers and moved on. We went to California Adventure and had a great time the girls loved the rides and it is a beautiful setting. Cecilia was quite scared on the SUn wheel which is a giant ferris wheel. We went on one of the gondolas that rocked and she was unnerved, she recovered and we enjoyed the ALADIN show and a nice meal, after that it was a swim and the girls were out.

DAY 2 AT DISNEYLAND

Big Julie, Sari and Caleb joined up today and we started with a character Breakfast with Lilo and Stitch which was a lot of fun. Then it was off to adventure, we went through the turnstiles and THEN found out that Big Julie et al could not get through for 30 more minutes so while we were in we got a locker and took pictures on a mostly deserted main street we rode teacups and astro orbitor then started the day. Very packed with excitement including Juli wanting to be in the front seat of the Log Flume ride (even after seeing the 50 foot drop) when we got up there they wouldnt let her so Mommy had to switch and got very wet. We rode at 2pm though so she did dry, the highlight of the day was the girls getting picked for the "JEDI Training Academy" which included getting onstage and being taught some moves which came in handy because they each got to duel with a sith, neato! We finished off with a rainforest cafe dinner and a swim at the pool at the hotel which was very warm. They are now sleeping (see pictures) also included today are pictures with the family with Minnie, inside the park at the walt and mickie statue, the castle, by the golden spike and with mickie at his house.

Day 1 at Disneyland

Woke up early and went to the Grand Californian for the Chip and Dales chracter Breakfast, it was lots of fun and spent a good amount of time there, and saw everyone but Dale. By the time we came out of the breakfast it was time for Disnyland and we jumped in with the Splatterhorn right away, then the autotopia. Then the Honey I shrunk the audience3-D show. right after that Scott called and we met him at startours and proceeded to have a high time as we walked on every ride except the Pirates which shut down right as we walked on. We rode the ferry over to Tom Sawyers Island with capt. jack sparrow, who sat right next to the girls (pictures were taken by a Disney Pro), we were very pleased with the day, and had to cancel our Rainforest Cafe as the girls were really ready to fall asleep (in fact julie fell asleep in the Booth after she ate dinner) but now all is quiet in the room they have taken a tubby and are looking forward to the big day tomorrow. The pictures today are the girls with ChIp, in the Plaza befor breakfast and playing a dancing game at the breakfast.

COAST TO COAST

Big day left they house at 704am and by 330 (west coast time) we were going on a ride at disneyland we didnt have too ambitious of a schedule today, we had a good flight, got the rental no prob, and checked in no prob. Had a bit to eat before heading to the park and then saw both the Parade of Dreams and the ELECTRICAL parade which is only on sundays. THe girls loved them both got a little windy and they cancelled the fireworks, but the day was a great success. THey are sleeping right now it took them less than three minutes after jammies on and foot rub to fall asleep. In the pictures youll see the girls getting off the plane in Burbank, in the Big A at the Disney Entrace and Mickey and minnie in the Parade of dreams. Tomorrow Scott will come up for a day and see what is happening in the park. The room is nice with a great view of the park and that makes the girls giggly.

THE EXPERIENCE THING

"10 years in the House. 11 in the Senate. 4 years as US Ambassador. 4 as Secretary of State."

"And 4 years President of the United States of America.When an emergency letter from Richmond comes to the White House at 3:00 in the morning, who do you trust to pick up the quill?

An unknown golden-tongued trial lawyer from Illinois, who's only served in Congress for one 2-year term?

Or James Buchanan, a man with 40 proud years of service to his country under his belt?

SAY NO TO LINCOLN. RE-ELECT JAMES BUCHANAN IN 1860.

In a difficult time, the experience we need.""I'm James Buchanan, and I approve this lithograph."

Helps to know a little about presidential history.