2008 General Election Strategy

As last positioned in 2004 I predicted that the Dems would go hard for OHIO and win every state that they won in 2000 (except IOWA) but pick up New Hampshire. That was right except for New Mexico which went for Bush. In 2000 I missed on FLorida and New Mexico (crappyNew Mexico). Anyhow here is the official strategy for those watching at home. Instead of predicting the nominee Ill just say the Dem Stategy is slightly different for each candidate. While McCains is just slightly different from BUSH's '04 stategy.

One horrid trend (not talked about enough) is that 29 Republican Congressman are retiring this cycle about 20 in swing districts, which means the RNCC (which helps elect and reeclect Republican COngressman) will not have much time to help the nominee, also the RSCC (republican Senatorial) will have to defend a bunch of swing open seats. They are probably going to lose in New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. And are probably toss-ups right now to keep the seats in Minnesota and Oregon. Again less money and resources to help MCcain.

First McCain.. Repeat of 2004 (which would get him to 286 electoral votes) pretty simple, He will try for New Hampshire (although I dont know why) IOWA (why again) and will campaign hard in several red states (presumably to keep them Red) NEVADA, COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, MISSOURI, FLORIDA. His stragey is EASIER If Hillary is the Nominee because of her high negatives which will keep him from spending money in other states like Arkansas and VIrginia. Several problems for MCain in Red 2000/2004 states.

Nevada (turning purple lately) high influx of new residents so thats an unknown which will force him to campaign. Good news for him there no popular dem on the ballot. BUT>>>>

In Colorado, popular Congressman Mark Udall is running for the Senate seat vacated by Rep. Wayne Allard, its a no brainer win, and Udalls popularity would benefit Obama whose voters are close to Udalls. Also the new Governer (Bill RItter) is popular AND the Dem COnvention is in Denver in August. All will make it close.

IN New Mexico, Pete Domenici is Retiring and the Other COngressman Udall (TOM) is running for Senator (in fact all three US REPS are running for Senate) Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are giving up their seats to run in the Republican Primary, Heather Wilson just barely kept her seat the last two cycles and Udall will be replaced by another DEM. SO New Mexico is going to elect a senator and 3 (all they have) new Congressman. With so many resources being used by the state party the last thing they will have is time to babysit McCain. This will be a great state to watch

IOWA a tough one for McCain which gave OBAMA a big victory, and who also has a popular new governer Chet Culver. Jim Leach who was in congress 20 years in the University of Iowa District was beaten by a Proffessor in 2006 (and Leach was one of 2 republican congressman to vote against the war-- Ron Paul was the other). He will be forced to campaign here if OBAMA is the nominee.

Missouri. After a wretched 4 year term (scandals) Matt Blunt-- son of US HOUSE minority whip Roy Blunt will be stepping down because he "accomplished everything he set out to do". After barely beating Claire McCaskill in 2004 (who in 2006 won a US Senate seat). The Republicans will be groping for a candidate. While the Dems have a good one in JAY NIXON, who was trouncing Blunt Jr. IN the Polls. McCaskill the most popular politician in the state now supported OBAMA, which will force MCCain to campaign there. Not so much if Hillary is the Nominee.

Arkansas. If Hillary is the Nominee she will campaign here, which means McCain will have to campaign there. Senator Mark Pryor a DEM is up for reelection which could help Hillary. Still its a long shot for Hillary, not a shot at all for OBAMA.

FLORIDA, MCCain will spend a lot of time there, but thats more for show. Unless OBAMA can get out a lot (maybe a 8% increase in new voters that will only vote for him) I dont see how any DEM can win. FLorida only voted for CLinton once and that was just barely. So it seems a reach for a DEM, but campaign they will even if its a waste of resources.

VIRGINIA based only on the exit polls (and a hunch) OBAMA could make VIrginia Competitive, they have a DEmocratic Governer (who people fell in love with after the Vtech shootings) who supported OBAMA last year. They just elected Jim Webb (the former secretary of Navy under Reagan) over George Allen. And they will have the biggest vote getter ever for a DEM in Virgina former Governer Mark Warner running for the seat of Retiring Senator John Warner. With the Upscale Warner on the Ballot someone like OBAMA could pull a minor Miracle and win the state just barely. Warners popularity and his place on the ballot should not be taken lightly.

OHIO, 'nuff said. its the whole show. Any strategy on both sides means winning this. To put in perspective. OBAMA or HILLARY could pick up the Red State wins of IOWA NEW MEXICO and NEVADA from 2004 and STILL only have an ELECTORAL TIE (269). So for all candidates its a matter of Holding what they got in 2004 BUT winning OHIO, its as they say, the money shot. However the entire state Government (from Governer on down) went from REPUBLICAN to DEM, thanks to scandals both at the state and congressional level. They also bounced 2 term Rep. Senator Mike Dewine in favor of the Sherrod Brown, one of the most progressive congressan in the US when he was elected. The electorate has showed they want change, did they get all the wanted in 2006 by slicing off the head of the state party.

Interesting Trivia The congressman Udalls are also cousins to Rep. Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon who will be in a tough race in Oregon.
Also no Republican has EVER won the White House without winning OHIO.