Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Waiting for Pulmber
Im off today so going to do a little packing and what not. Raiders Lost the coin flip and will pick fourth, probably wont matter anyhow as it would cost 4 million more to sign the 3rd pick as opposed to the 4th. Gramma and Grampa still have a huge pile of snow on the front lawn, as it isnt warming up too much during the day, probably for the best or the mountains would flood like you wouldnt believe. My friend at worked that was canned got his job back as some of the paperwork was messed up which was cool, besides that person that liked about the former postmaster and turned the place upside down seems to still be around so didnt seem fair to fire one and not the other. Im enjoying the weather as I like it a little cold because it warms up in the truck as you deliver so this is just fine. The tummy flu just about wiped out Thomasville Vet Hospital last week as Julie got sick and Tina had to go get Julie and three other people were already out I believe. We are making our plans for Disneyland and California Adventure, Big Julie and cousin Caleb will be joining us (including shacking up with us one night at the Marriott) we did Priority Seating (Basically reservations for all the meals) and so that was good. We asked about priority seating for the ELectrical Parade on Sunday and they gave us a good description and everything and I was saying "sure sounds good" ok that will be "49.5o for the girls and 59.50 for the adults" are you kidding to watch a parade you can watch for free? she said that We would get Hours D'oveoures but at that price they better be $50 bills rolled in caviar. SO we will sit like our kindred masses and watch it sans ritz crakers and cheese whiz.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Exciting Daytona Thing
Scott told me that there was a free pass to "HOT PASS" on Directv HD, so I went and viewed the last 30 laps or so of the Daytona Race and jinxed our neighbor (david Blaney) as soon as I sat down he went from 10th place to OUT as he crashed. WOOPSIE, scott said the M&M car guy would win, and he almost did, but his guy #12 did win so good day for Uncle Scott as his guy won the race. The driver won the Harley Earle trophy ( I think the Earle Brother that had teeth). Outback was not on the agenda as we had a report from school. They also blew a chance at earning a Sunday treat of cashing in their Krispy Kreme donut freebies, but just couldnt bring themselves to practice the church songs. Whacking each other with broomsticks was much more fun?/painful. Anyhoo. MommyBear was distressed as she told them "I dont get to have fun either, what a gip" well there is an OUTBACK about 2.5 miles from the HOTEL at Disneyland so Im sure we can do. OVERALL though the girls are doing much better in citizenship. Otherwise they got to work on their projects and Julies is done while Cillys just requires printing out some captions and some gluing. We go to the school on Wednesday Night to display them. Tomorrow Tina and I share the day off, so we are going to see either "No country for Old men" or "there will be blood" I predict that whatever one we see will win the academy award, as I have always seen the Oscar winner in the theatre BEFORE the ceremony (next sunday) and since we havent seen any of the five and will only be seeing one, it has to be it. By the way its my streak and started in 1975 (cuckoos nest). At work this week will be the "ask me anything about the oscars week" for which i will clean up on COca-Colas and packs of gum. Neat trivia this year is Cate Blanchette becomes the first woman to get a nomination for the same role (Elizabeth I) by the way only two men were nominated twice for playing the same role, Bing Crosby (won in 1944) and Al Pacino, who didnt win either year he was nominated for playing Don Coleone. And TWO actors won (1972 and 1974) for playing the same role. Think about it.
Friday, February 15, 2008
NFL COIN FLIP
VDAY was sweet did not have any chocolate, but good nonetheless. We got a message from Scotts Sister who was excited to see her mom and brother on YOUTUBE, I think people are excited when they finally get on. More copyright infringement though as it comes from the NFL network, although, did they really think no one would post their own DVD. Weird. Next week is the NFL Scouting Combine and the Raiders and Falcons AND Kansas City will toss a coin to see who drafts ahead of who. DOnt ask how three people toss a coin. Well actually ok here it is.....
The Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders all had the same strength of schedule -- they played teams that finished with a winning percentage of .516 compared to .523 for Jets' opponents.
Because the Chiefs finished third in the AFC West with a better record in common games over the Raiders, Oakland will draft ahead of them.
So the Falcons and Raiders will flip a coin for the third spot. If Atlanta wins, it will pick third followed by Oakland and Kansas City. If Oakland wins the toss, then the Chiefs and Falcons will flip for the fourth spot.
By the way Miami goes first then St. Louis. This is the first year the NFL went with both Strength of Schedule AND Opponents records, to avert coin filps, which of course it didnt. Anyhow something good FOOTBALL wise wil be happening next week. Good news for US (RAIDERS) is that we DONT need a QB but the Bad news is Glenn Dorsey will probably be gone. So it goes.
Useless trivia of the DA, besides being a former congressman, governer, Marine, District Attorney AND Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge is deaf as a post.
The Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders all had the same strength of schedule -- they played teams that finished with a winning percentage of .516 compared to .523 for Jets' opponents.
Because the Chiefs finished third in the AFC West with a better record in common games over the Raiders, Oakland will draft ahead of them.
So the Falcons and Raiders will flip a coin for the third spot. If Atlanta wins, it will pick third followed by Oakland and Kansas City. If Oakland wins the toss, then the Chiefs and Falcons will flip for the fourth spot.
By the way Miami goes first then St. Louis. This is the first year the NFL went with both Strength of Schedule AND Opponents records, to avert coin filps, which of course it didnt. Anyhow something good FOOTBALL wise wil be happening next week. Good news for US (RAIDERS) is that we DONT need a QB but the Bad news is Glenn Dorsey will probably be gone. So it goes.
Useless trivia of the DA, besides being a former congressman, governer, Marine, District Attorney AND Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge is deaf as a post.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
happy Vday
Tina and I are going to do the VDAY special thing on Saturday with the Girls, if all goes well on the good conduct side of things for the girls we will be going to OUTBACK, courtesy of our "friends" the Calabreses and we will even order a desert. YOWZA.
In political news ranking just above the obscure line, but thats the news I like, Mark McKinnon who was a DEM until he worked as Head of GW BUshes ad campaigns, and who is now doing the same job for John McCain announced that he will be stepping down if Barak Obama is the nominee. IM paraphrasing but he said something to the effect, that he will support MCcain from the sidelines, but respects Obama (and knows him) and will not be a part of a campaign "that would inevitably be attacking Obama". Thats intriguing.
In political news ranking just above the obscure line, but thats the news I like, Mark McKinnon who was a DEM until he worked as Head of GW BUshes ad campaigns, and who is now doing the same job for John McCain announced that he will be stepping down if Barak Obama is the nominee. IM paraphrasing but he said something to the effect, that he will support MCcain from the sidelines, but respects Obama (and knows him) and will not be a part of a campaign "that would inevitably be attacking Obama". Thats intriguing.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
2008 General Election Strategy
As last positioned in 2004 I predicted that the Dems would go hard for OHIO and win every state that they won in 2000 (except IOWA) but pick up New Hampshire. That was right except for New Mexico which went for Bush. In 2000 I missed on FLorida and New Mexico (crappyNew Mexico). Anyhow here is the official strategy for those watching at home. Instead of predicting the nominee Ill just say the Dem Stategy is slightly different for each candidate. While McCains is just slightly different from BUSH's '04 stategy.
One horrid trend (not talked about enough) is that 29 Republican Congressman are retiring this cycle about 20 in swing districts, which means the RNCC (which helps elect and reeclect Republican COngressman) will not have much time to help the nominee, also the RSCC (republican Senatorial) will have to defend a bunch of swing open seats. They are probably going to lose in New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. And are probably toss-ups right now to keep the seats in Minnesota and Oregon. Again less money and resources to help MCcain.
First McCain.. Repeat of 2004 (which would get him to 286 electoral votes) pretty simple, He will try for New Hampshire (although I dont know why) IOWA (why again) and will campaign hard in several red states (presumably to keep them Red) NEVADA, COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, MISSOURI, FLORIDA. His stragey is EASIER If Hillary is the Nominee because of her high negatives which will keep him from spending money in other states like Arkansas and VIrginia. Several problems for MCain in Red 2000/2004 states.
Nevada (turning purple lately) high influx of new residents so thats an unknown which will force him to campaign. Good news for him there no popular dem on the ballot. BUT>>>>
In Colorado, popular Congressman Mark Udall is running for the Senate seat vacated by Rep. Wayne Allard, its a no brainer win, and Udalls popularity would benefit Obama whose voters are close to Udalls. Also the new Governer (Bill RItter) is popular AND the Dem COnvention is in Denver in August. All will make it close.
IN New Mexico, Pete Domenici is Retiring and the Other COngressman Udall (TOM) is running for Senator (in fact all three US REPS are running for Senate) Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are giving up their seats to run in the Republican Primary, Heather Wilson just barely kept her seat the last two cycles and Udall will be replaced by another DEM. SO New Mexico is going to elect a senator and 3 (all they have) new Congressman. With so many resources being used by the state party the last thing they will have is time to babysit McCain. This will be a great state to watch
IOWA a tough one for McCain which gave OBAMA a big victory, and who also has a popular new governer Chet Culver. Jim Leach who was in congress 20 years in the University of Iowa District was beaten by a Proffessor in 2006 (and Leach was one of 2 republican congressman to vote against the war-- Ron Paul was the other). He will be forced to campaign here if OBAMA is the nominee.
Missouri. After a wretched 4 year term (scandals) Matt Blunt-- son of US HOUSE minority whip Roy Blunt will be stepping down because he "accomplished everything he set out to do". After barely beating Claire McCaskill in 2004 (who in 2006 won a US Senate seat). The Republicans will be groping for a candidate. While the Dems have a good one in JAY NIXON, who was trouncing Blunt Jr. IN the Polls. McCaskill the most popular politician in the state now supported OBAMA, which will force MCCain to campaign there. Not so much if Hillary is the Nominee.
Arkansas. If Hillary is the Nominee she will campaign here, which means McCain will have to campaign there. Senator Mark Pryor a DEM is up for reelection which could help Hillary. Still its a long shot for Hillary, not a shot at all for OBAMA.
FLORIDA, MCCain will spend a lot of time there, but thats more for show. Unless OBAMA can get out a lot (maybe a 8% increase in new voters that will only vote for him) I dont see how any DEM can win. FLorida only voted for CLinton once and that was just barely. So it seems a reach for a DEM, but campaign they will even if its a waste of resources.
VIRGINIA based only on the exit polls (and a hunch) OBAMA could make VIrginia Competitive, they have a DEmocratic Governer (who people fell in love with after the Vtech shootings) who supported OBAMA last year. They just elected Jim Webb (the former secretary of Navy under Reagan) over George Allen. And they will have the biggest vote getter ever for a DEM in Virgina former Governer Mark Warner running for the seat of Retiring Senator John Warner. With the Upscale Warner on the Ballot someone like OBAMA could pull a minor Miracle and win the state just barely. Warners popularity and his place on the ballot should not be taken lightly.
OHIO, 'nuff said. its the whole show. Any strategy on both sides means winning this. To put in perspective. OBAMA or HILLARY could pick up the Red State wins of IOWA NEW MEXICO and NEVADA from 2004 and STILL only have an ELECTORAL TIE (269). So for all candidates its a matter of Holding what they got in 2004 BUT winning OHIO, its as they say, the money shot. However the entire state Government (from Governer on down) went from REPUBLICAN to DEM, thanks to scandals both at the state and congressional level. They also bounced 2 term Rep. Senator Mike Dewine in favor of the Sherrod Brown, one of the most progressive congressan in the US when he was elected. The electorate has showed they want change, did they get all the wanted in 2006 by slicing off the head of the state party.
Interesting Trivia The congressman Udalls are also cousins to Rep. Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon who will be in a tough race in Oregon.
Also no Republican has EVER won the White House without winning OHIO.
One horrid trend (not talked about enough) is that 29 Republican Congressman are retiring this cycle about 20 in swing districts, which means the RNCC (which helps elect and reeclect Republican COngressman) will not have much time to help the nominee, also the RSCC (republican Senatorial) will have to defend a bunch of swing open seats. They are probably going to lose in New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. And are probably toss-ups right now to keep the seats in Minnesota and Oregon. Again less money and resources to help MCcain.
First McCain.. Repeat of 2004 (which would get him to 286 electoral votes) pretty simple, He will try for New Hampshire (although I dont know why) IOWA (why again) and will campaign hard in several red states (presumably to keep them Red) NEVADA, COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, MISSOURI, FLORIDA. His stragey is EASIER If Hillary is the Nominee because of her high negatives which will keep him from spending money in other states like Arkansas and VIrginia. Several problems for MCain in Red 2000/2004 states.
Nevada (turning purple lately) high influx of new residents so thats an unknown which will force him to campaign. Good news for him there no popular dem on the ballot. BUT>>>>
In Colorado, popular Congressman Mark Udall is running for the Senate seat vacated by Rep. Wayne Allard, its a no brainer win, and Udalls popularity would benefit Obama whose voters are close to Udalls. Also the new Governer (Bill RItter) is popular AND the Dem COnvention is in Denver in August. All will make it close.
IN New Mexico, Pete Domenici is Retiring and the Other COngressman Udall (TOM) is running for Senator (in fact all three US REPS are running for Senate) Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are giving up their seats to run in the Republican Primary, Heather Wilson just barely kept her seat the last two cycles and Udall will be replaced by another DEM. SO New Mexico is going to elect a senator and 3 (all they have) new Congressman. With so many resources being used by the state party the last thing they will have is time to babysit McCain. This will be a great state to watch
IOWA a tough one for McCain which gave OBAMA a big victory, and who also has a popular new governer Chet Culver. Jim Leach who was in congress 20 years in the University of Iowa District was beaten by a Proffessor in 2006 (and Leach was one of 2 republican congressman to vote against the war-- Ron Paul was the other). He will be forced to campaign here if OBAMA is the nominee.
Missouri. After a wretched 4 year term (scandals) Matt Blunt-- son of US HOUSE minority whip Roy Blunt will be stepping down because he "accomplished everything he set out to do". After barely beating Claire McCaskill in 2004 (who in 2006 won a US Senate seat). The Republicans will be groping for a candidate. While the Dems have a good one in JAY NIXON, who was trouncing Blunt Jr. IN the Polls. McCaskill the most popular politician in the state now supported OBAMA, which will force MCCain to campaign there. Not so much if Hillary is the Nominee.
Arkansas. If Hillary is the Nominee she will campaign here, which means McCain will have to campaign there. Senator Mark Pryor a DEM is up for reelection which could help Hillary. Still its a long shot for Hillary, not a shot at all for OBAMA.
FLORIDA, MCCain will spend a lot of time there, but thats more for show. Unless OBAMA can get out a lot (maybe a 8% increase in new voters that will only vote for him) I dont see how any DEM can win. FLorida only voted for CLinton once and that was just barely. So it seems a reach for a DEM, but campaign they will even if its a waste of resources.
VIRGINIA based only on the exit polls (and a hunch) OBAMA could make VIrginia Competitive, they have a DEmocratic Governer (who people fell in love with after the Vtech shootings) who supported OBAMA last year. They just elected Jim Webb (the former secretary of Navy under Reagan) over George Allen. And they will have the biggest vote getter ever for a DEM in Virgina former Governer Mark Warner running for the seat of Retiring Senator John Warner. With the Upscale Warner on the Ballot someone like OBAMA could pull a minor Miracle and win the state just barely. Warners popularity and his place on the ballot should not be taken lightly.
OHIO, 'nuff said. its the whole show. Any strategy on both sides means winning this. To put in perspective. OBAMA or HILLARY could pick up the Red State wins of IOWA NEW MEXICO and NEVADA from 2004 and STILL only have an ELECTORAL TIE (269). So for all candidates its a matter of Holding what they got in 2004 BUT winning OHIO, its as they say, the money shot. However the entire state Government (from Governer on down) went from REPUBLICAN to DEM, thanks to scandals both at the state and congressional level. They also bounced 2 term Rep. Senator Mike Dewine in favor of the Sherrod Brown, one of the most progressive congressan in the US when he was elected. The electorate has showed they want change, did they get all the wanted in 2006 by slicing off the head of the state party.
Interesting Trivia The congressman Udalls are also cousins to Rep. Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon who will be in a tough race in Oregon.
Also no Republican has EVER won the White House without winning OHIO.
Monday, February 11, 2008
BACK TO THE BLOG
Seems like a good time to get back to the blog, been super busy for so long, doing something or another, but lots of good stuff coming up. Scott and Cathy went to the NFL Experience at the Super Bowl and ended up on Raiderfans.net. Scotts Dad lives right by the Stadium. Scotts been to a Super Bowl (37) and so have I (15) and we can tell you the best seat is in front of the TV. At work, a good friend of mine has been canned for failing to show up on time or at all. Hopefully he will be ok, Im sure he has something else going on as its hard for me to imagine someone giving up a postal job after 12 years. Anyhooters. Tina and I's main Man John Edwards dropped out so Im for OBama now. Hillarys ok with me to. A helluva a lot better than McCain whose platform will be "The illegals are here to stay, the manufacturing jobs are gone for ever, and I want more wars". In very intriguing news my mom who hasnt voted Democratic since Carter, went a caucused for OBAMA in Idaho, she was laughing when she heard that it was only young people that did. I bet her five she would be the oldest one there but there was a 91 year old women there. We did another DVD, this time using some tricks and gadgets, so we will probably be getting a DVD camera sometime before August so that I can fiddle with moving images for the girls. They are posted on YouTube I know some of you asked about that but I wasnt sure that Ive ever given out the youtube link thingy.
Im still on the 40 hour note at work, as my shoulder and back essentially hurt all the time after 2pm till i take some pills and fall asleep. Someone asked my general election strategy so Ill post that one tomorrow.
WOrking on the girls science projects all first graders do a "seed" collection so she is doing "JULIES seeds A-Z" we have seeds from each letter of the alphabet. And 2nd graders have to do "Collections" so she is do a collection of everything she found last year. Should be good, the big find of the year was a wallet with $357 dollars in it. We returned it of course, but that was a thrill for her, (although she asked if we could take a limo ride if we couldnt find the person!).
CIAO
Im still on the 40 hour note at work, as my shoulder and back essentially hurt all the time after 2pm till i take some pills and fall asleep. Someone asked my general election strategy so Ill post that one tomorrow.
WOrking on the girls science projects all first graders do a "seed" collection so she is doing "JULIES seeds A-Z" we have seeds from each letter of the alphabet. And 2nd graders have to do "Collections" so she is do a collection of everything she found last year. Should be good, the big find of the year was a wallet with $357 dollars in it. We returned it of course, but that was a thrill for her, (although she asked if we could take a limo ride if we couldnt find the person!).
CIAO
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