EGGS IN THE FOX DUNG SHOE FLY SHOE

I noticed there wasnt a good instructional video on EGG DYEING for kids on line so I think we will make one next year. THis is spring break week, the girls are out of school but will go for activity week there. I forgot to post this pic of them making eggs this week.

HAPPY EASTER

The Bunny Is coming!!! We are having a great weekend, the girls did well at school for the Stanford Acheivement Tests. We let Juli Pick the Dinner place on Friday (she picked Hams) and Cilly will pick another day. We went to see NATIONAL TREASURE BOOK OF SECRETS tonight the girls loved it. And had subway before. Tommorrow its off to Good Sheppard for Juli, and then Lunch. But first a visit from the Easter Bunny.

MEETING THE COACH

(ADDED NEXT MORNING JINX ALERT) Literally after posting this picture I saw that BELMONT was leading 70-69 with 1:35 left (I had TIVO'd the game and thought it was over, right after that DUKE Scored and Belmont missed its last two shots, I take the blame for posting this pic too early, rats. Good news the commentators were impressed with the coaching, and the play of the team)

I noticed that DUKE is playing BELMONT, last year when the tourney was in Winston-Salem, we got a chance to meet the Coach of Belmont RICK BYRD, I thought I would post a picture of him. He was mentioned in Sports Illustrated today as one of the 65 reasons to LOVE the NCAA tourney because Billy Donovan (the coach of consecutive champs FLORIDA) didnt make the tournery and was paid 3.5 million this year and Rick Byrd who makes 228K did.

CONGRESSIONAL BRACKETS

On the right you will find brackets for the NCAA Division I mens and womens field using congresscritters that went to the respective colleges. Fun to see some of the Rivalries. By the way the Final Four Picks are Tennessee (east) Georgetown (Midwest) Memphis (south) and UCLA (west), Tennesse and UCLA in the final with UCLA winning. (I didnt pick them to beat FLorida either of the last two years by the way). SHOULD Duke and UCLA get through their first three games, they would meet on Saturday Night March 29th, DUKE and UCLA fans (from work and such) are invited only. But no lame UNC honks or other lamers. So basically me and DUKE fans, since I havent met anyone that roots for UCLA. IM OUT>

ISSUES AND ANSWERS

Had three or four requests to do some "issues" things before IOWA, but hadnt really got back to the bloggin' thing. So here goes with some pretty watered down "read-unbiased" stand of the candidates. Ill try to keep the same format each time, a personal overview of how important the issue will be and then where the candidates stand, per se'.

Issue today Immigration:
Personal Overview: This campaign wont turn on this Issue because the three candidates all have similar viewpoint. McCain has acknowledged that his bill (labeled McCain-Kennedy) lacked proper support for a border fence/border security in order to gain the necessary cover for Republicans to vote for it. McCain being from a border state couldn't survive politically (Even Bush and current Texas Governer Rick Perry supported the abortive bill last summer), if he came off as ANTI-Mexican, which is all the opposition to the bill is.

There are currently 12 million =/- 500K illegal immigrants in the US about 6 million (estimated by the Commerce Department) from Mexico. about 2 million from other Central and South American countries and a staggering 1 Million from China. Personally being from a Border State (in fact border region) of the country. There isn't anything we can do UNLESS we start cracking down on Businesses that hire them. The Republican Party is LOATHE to do anything that infringes commerce and Clinton (liker her hubby) and Obama are bascally pro-busines DLC type Democrats. There is no way to round them up (because 300 million people cannot round up 12 million). There is no place to process and keep them, no place to hold them, the list goes on and on. The Governers of Arizona and New Mexico are the most ACTIVE at trying to control the border (and they are DEMS) while the Governers of California and Texas (REPS) are aware that any control on business could mean a collapse (yes collapse) of that states GDP.

The roots of our current immigration dilema dates back to WWII when the border states entered into contracts (SIGNED YET!) with Mexican citizens to allow them to come to america to work the fields and fill other jobs. SO the decendents are just following the pattern, as the states never got over their thirst for those jobs to the filled. My Prediction here is that McCain (whose Senate seat is up in 2010) will decide in his mind that this will be his last election. And that he can convert more conservatives for whom this issue will matter than will cost him in the southwest. After all He wont win CAlifornia, and his wont LOSE Texas, so the only swing state is NEw Mexico, and with the Entire ELigible Congressional Delegation Up in that state, it will be hard to win that as well. SO he will go for broke with a MORE ENFORCEMENT stand. If you hear him talk about "work place enforcement" you can go to the bank that he will not run for reelection should he lose the Presidential election. Obama and Hillary, will count on the residual "anti-mexican" sentiment that backlashed on the Republicans (the lost two House seats in Arizona because of that stand alone). They will remind hispanic voters how much talk radio, etc, railed against them and then hit Univision and the Hispanic Talk Radio with ads to that effect.

For those of us from Southern California it was a laugh-riot to hear the hotheads from other parts of the country, go on about the "people with mexican flags"etc. and talk about how they "walked out of school", when in fact for those of us that grew up there, we were schooled on the walkout movement of the sixties, started by the Chicanos in Los Angeles, for us/them it was just a tradition ressurected (to great political effect I must say). The Republicans lost a valuable voting block with their reaction to those weeks of protest, and thats not conjecture, its seen in the exit polls of 2006. Short story long, McCain could use the issue wisely in emphasizing enforcement, while Hillary and Obama will use the Spanish Language stations (and surragotes) to emphasize the Republicans overeacton. Here are the stands

Hillary:
On the Border Fence and Border Security
"It is unconscionable to think that in a post-9/11 world we do not know precisely who is entering and exiting our country. Our homeland security requires that we know the identities of all people who cross our borders. In reforming our broken system, our efforts must be multifaceted and comprehensive."— Statement, March 8, 2006
"A comprehensive solution to our immigration crisis must include strengthening our borders."— Statement, May 1, 2007
On Illegal Aliens Already in the Country
SUPPORTS A PATH TO LEGALIZATION FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS THAT INCLUDES LEARNING ENGLISH AND PAYING FINES; TOUGHEN PENALTIES FOR EMPLOYERS WHO HIRE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS
Make it easier for immigrants to bring families. Supports agricultural jobs program; opposes guest worker program that can lower wages of American workers or exploit immigrants. Create new system to verify employment eligibility. Opposes driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants.
"I'm in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, which includes tightening our border security, sanctioning employers to employ undocumented immigrants, helping our communities deal with the costs that come from illegal immigration, getting the 12 million or so immigrants out of the shadows. That's very important to me.
After 9/11, we've got to know who's in this country. And then giving them a chance to pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English and stand in line to be eligible for a legal status in this country."— Democratic debate, April 26, 2007
Actions on the Issue
Co-sponsored the Legal Immigrant Children's Health Improvement Act of 2007, which would lift the current waitng period of five years for federal health care benefits for legal immigrants.— More information
Voted yes on the "Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006," which would have created a guest worker program and addressed border security issues.— More information
Voted yes on the "Secure Fence Act of 2006," which created 700 miles of new fence along the US/Mexico border.


McCain:
Supports a path to legalization for illegal immigrants that includes learning English and paying fines; voted for fence along Mexican border.
On the Border Fence and Border Security
Says border security is the "first and foremost priority."
"One thing we would all agree on, the status quo is not acceptable. We have to secure our borders. But we also need a temporary worker program, and we have to dispose of the issue of 12 million people who are in this country illegally. This issue is an important and compelling one, and it begins with national security. But we also need to address it comprehensively."— Republican debate, May 3, 2007
On Illegal Aliens Already in the Country
SUPPORTS A PATH TO LEGALIZATION THAT INCLUDES LEARNING ENGLISH AND PAYING FINES
"We need to have a guest worker program. ... Our proposal is basically you can get a tamper-proof visa after your job has been proven that it cannot be filled by an American citizen. ... What do you do with the 11 million people that are already here? ... Make them earn citizenship because they have broken our laws. My friends, thats not amnesty. Amnesty is forgiveness. We're not forgiving anything."— In New Hampshire, April 7, 2007
Actions on the Issue
Co-Sponsored the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act of 2007, which would allow states to give illegal immigrants in-state tuition for higher education and let the homeland security secretary confer legal resident status on some illegal immigrant students.— More information
Co-Sponsored and voted yes on the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006, which would have created a guest worker program and addressed border security issues.— More information
Voted yes on the "Secure Fence Act of 2006," which created 700 miles of new fence along the US/Mexico border.

OBAMA


Supports a path to legalization for illegal immigrants that includes learning English and paying fines; toughen penalties for hiring illegal immigrants; voted for fence along Mexican border.
On the Border Fence and Border Security
"We're going to have to secure our borders. And this past year, the Senate invested billions of dollars in improving border security. I think that's important because I think all Americans think that we should be able to regulate who comes in and out of this country in an orderly way, not only for the sake of our sovereignty, but also to avoid the hundreds of people who have been dying across the desert, the enormous costs that are placed on border states and border towns. I also think that we've got to be serious about employers' obligations to check to see whether somebody is here legally or not...There hasn't been a serious program of employer sanctions. That has to be put in place."— "Larry King Live," March 24, 2007
On Illegal Aliens Already in the Country
SUPPORTS A PATH TO LEGALIZATION FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS THAT INCLUDES LEARNING ENGLISH AND PAYING FINES; TOUGHEN PENALTIES FOR EMPLOYERS WHO HIRE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS
Create system to verify employment eligibility. Supports guest worker programs but would like immigrant workers to be less dependent on employers to stay in the country. Supports granting driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants.
"[We] have to recognize that we've got 12 million undocumented workers who are already here. Many of them living their lives alongside other Americans. Their kids are going to school. Many of the kids, in fact, were born in this country and are citizens. And so, it's absolutely vital that we bring those families out of the shadows and that we give them the opportunity to travel a pathway to citizenship. It's not automatic citizenship. It's not amnesty. They would have to pay a fine. They would have to not have engaged in any criminal activity. They would have to learn English. They would have to go to the back of the line so that they did not get citizenship before those persons who had come here legally."— "Larry King Live," March 24, 2007
Actions on the Issue
Co-Sponsored the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act of 2007, which would allow states to give illegal immigrants in-state tuition for higher education and let the homeland security secretary confer legal resident status on some illegal immigrant students.— More information
Co-sponsored the Citizenship Promotion Act 2007, which would require the federal government to freeze the fee that legal immigrants pay for each application for services at current levels and called for $80 million a year to promote citizenship.— More information
Voted yes on the "Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006," which would have created a guest worker program and addressed border security issues.— More information
Voted yes on the "Secure Fence Act of 2006," which created 700 miles of new fence along the US/Mexico border.

POPULAR VOTE THING

There has been a lot of talk about what will happen if Obama wins the most pledged delegates but Hillary wins the popular vote.

Similar to the situation in TEXAS (where I had read the rules and figured out that OBAMA could lose the popular vote by as much as four and still win the delegate count for that state). No one has bothered (that I know of) or has offered any mathematical constructs showing the margins she will need to surpass Obama in the popular vote.

Let's crunch some numbers.There are 11 remaining races: MS, PA, OR, MT, SD, IN, KY, WV, NC, GuaM, and PR. All are primaries.

The Green Papers (primary voting website linked to secretary of state official tallies) has the popular votes from the 2004 primary season for all of the above except Puerto Rico, who had a caucus that year and ended up cancelling even that. This year PR is having a primary, but since there is no data from previous years I have left them out of my equations.

The total popular vote from 2004 in the abovementioned states (excluding PR, as noted) is 2,231,107.

How, then, can we guesstimate how many will actually vote in 2008? We can assume that the turnout will be much larger than in 2004, but by how much? The local level of interest in these races can be assumed to be as great as the level of interest in the other post-Super Tuesday races, when it became clear that nothing was decided, as opposed to past primary seasons when there was usually a presumptive nominee early on. So.What was the 2004 popular vote in the most recent races vs. 2008? I took OH, TX, RI, VT, WI, VA, MD, and DC as a point of comparison.

In 2004, total popular vote for these was 4,044,062 (per The Green Papers). In 2008, the total popular vote was 8,396,818 (per Real Clear Politics). Thus we had a little over twice the number of voters. So in the remaining races (excluding PR), we can guesstimate anywhere from twice 2,231,107 -- 4,462,214 -- to a generous thrice 2,231,107 -- 6,693,321.

If twice the regular numbers turn out, Clinton must win by 57-43% (average of each state)

to bypass Obama.

If thrice the regular numbers turn out, Clinton must win by 55-45% to bypass Obama.

But what if there's a redo of Florida and Michigan? This is Clinton's best chance of a catch up in popular vote:Using the methodology as above but adding FL and MI to the mix:If twice the regular numbers turn out, Clinton must win by a little less than 55-45% to bypass Obama.

If thrice the regular numbers turn out, Clinton must win by a little more than 53-47% to bypass Obama.Even if four times the regular numbers turn out, Clinton still must win by almost 52.5-47.5% to bypass Obama.

Does anyone think Clinton will maintain this percentage against Obama thruout the remaining races to win the popular vote?

This doesnt even take into account that OBAMA is likely to win at least 4 of the states with no problem (MS, OR, MT and SD) and is likely to win in North Carolina (the others are toss-ups at the moment). This would only make her further behind.

DAY 4 AT DISNEYLAND

Got up a little later than usual, and went to the breakfast in the park with minnie mouse, a lot of fun. Although Mommy Bear thought it smelled a little like pee. After that we headed to the California Adventure and had a great time with a couple of 3-D shows, and lunch on the Pacific Wharf where afterwards we threw some bread to the ducks and seagulls and a lost sandpiper. Mommy And cilly went on the big new roller coaster CALIFORNIA SCREAMIN'. And cilly went back on the Ferris Sun Wheel but this time on the Non-swinging gondola which she liked a lot better. We had planned to end our trip going down the water ride Grizzly River Rapids and at the last minute Mommy decided to get on. Julie got soaked, and me a little less so, cilly a bit and mommy not hardly. We went to the WOrld of Disney Store and loaded up on some good stuff and ended with a good meal and a little packing. Again the girls snoozed right away. Tommorrow we head back. It was a great trip. Pictures are with pooh, capt hook,at the Splatterhorn, on the wharf, and after getting splashed.

DAY 3 AT DISNEYLAND

Day 3 started with an exciting visit to Goofys Kitchen, the characters were out in full force, and we had quite a high time, goofy led a macarena line around. We finished up with the few things that we hadnt done yet at disneyland. And had lunch at the famed Blue Bayou. The girls got to sit on the back deck of the RiverBoat and in the very front hatch (with the driver) of the monorail. The one action item was going on the NEMO submarine ride which everyone seems to be ga-ga for. We were in line when the park opened and in position and for some reason the staff was yelling at the crowd to go around the Matterhorn (and the crowd believed it!) while we and about a dozen people who had been there before (i guess?) made our way to the ride, and we literally walked right on the sub, the girls loved it. By the time we got off the ride was to the 45 minute mark--- ouch. Even with two small kids we still beat the mass of people there, including teenagers that were running. We theorized later that if they went around the matterhorn, the line of people came straight into the ride where as groups could converge from one of three ways he way we went, so maybe it was an mayhem control issue. Anyway we pronounced the groups losers and moved on. We went to California Adventure and had a great time the girls loved the rides and it is a beautiful setting. Cecilia was quite scared on the SUn wheel which is a giant ferris wheel. We went on one of the gondolas that rocked and she was unnerved, she recovered and we enjoyed the ALADIN show and a nice meal, after that it was a swim and the girls were out.

DAY 2 AT DISNEYLAND

Big Julie, Sari and Caleb joined up today and we started with a character Breakfast with Lilo and Stitch which was a lot of fun. Then it was off to adventure, we went through the turnstiles and THEN found out that Big Julie et al could not get through for 30 more minutes so while we were in we got a locker and took pictures on a mostly deserted main street we rode teacups and astro orbitor then started the day. Very packed with excitement including Juli wanting to be in the front seat of the Log Flume ride (even after seeing the 50 foot drop) when we got up there they wouldnt let her so Mommy had to switch and got very wet. We rode at 2pm though so she did dry, the highlight of the day was the girls getting picked for the "JEDI Training Academy" which included getting onstage and being taught some moves which came in handy because they each got to duel with a sith, neato! We finished off with a rainforest cafe dinner and a swim at the pool at the hotel which was very warm. They are now sleeping (see pictures) also included today are pictures with the family with Minnie, inside the park at the walt and mickie statue, the castle, by the golden spike and with mickie at his house.

Day 1 at Disneyland

Woke up early and went to the Grand Californian for the Chip and Dales chracter Breakfast, it was lots of fun and spent a good amount of time there, and saw everyone but Dale. By the time we came out of the breakfast it was time for Disnyland and we jumped in with the Splatterhorn right away, then the autotopia. Then the Honey I shrunk the audience3-D show. right after that Scott called and we met him at startours and proceeded to have a high time as we walked on every ride except the Pirates which shut down right as we walked on. We rode the ferry over to Tom Sawyers Island with capt. jack sparrow, who sat right next to the girls (pictures were taken by a Disney Pro), we were very pleased with the day, and had to cancel our Rainforest Cafe as the girls were really ready to fall asleep (in fact julie fell asleep in the Booth after she ate dinner) but now all is quiet in the room they have taken a tubby and are looking forward to the big day tomorrow. The pictures today are the girls with ChIp, in the Plaza befor breakfast and playing a dancing game at the breakfast.

COAST TO COAST

Big day left they house at 704am and by 330 (west coast time) we were going on a ride at disneyland we didnt have too ambitious of a schedule today, we had a good flight, got the rental no prob, and checked in no prob. Had a bit to eat before heading to the park and then saw both the Parade of Dreams and the ELECTRICAL parade which is only on sundays. THe girls loved them both got a little windy and they cancelled the fireworks, but the day was a great success. THey are sleeping right now it took them less than three minutes after jammies on and foot rub to fall asleep. In the pictures youll see the girls getting off the plane in Burbank, in the Big A at the Disney Entrace and Mickey and minnie in the Parade of dreams. Tomorrow Scott will come up for a day and see what is happening in the park. The room is nice with a great view of the park and that makes the girls giggly.

THE EXPERIENCE THING

"10 years in the House. 11 in the Senate. 4 years as US Ambassador. 4 as Secretary of State."

"And 4 years President of the United States of America.When an emergency letter from Richmond comes to the White House at 3:00 in the morning, who do you trust to pick up the quill?

An unknown golden-tongued trial lawyer from Illinois, who's only served in Congress for one 2-year term?

Or James Buchanan, a man with 40 proud years of service to his country under his belt?

SAY NO TO LINCOLN. RE-ELECT JAMES BUCHANAN IN 1860.

In a difficult time, the experience we need.""I'm James Buchanan, and I approve this lithograph."

Helps to know a little about presidential history.